Conditional probability

problem
Snooker

Age

16 to 18

Challenge level

A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?
problem
Squash

Age

16 to 18

Challenge level

If the score is 8-8 do I have more chance of winning if the winner is the first to reach 9 points or the first to reach 10 points?
problem
Rain or shine

Age

16 to 18

Challenge level

Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.
problem
Winning marble

Age

14 to 16

Challenge level

How can this prisoner escape?
problem
Statins and risk

Age

14 to 16

Challenge level

"Statins cut the risks of heart attacks and strokes by 40%"
Should the Professor take statins? Can you help him decide?
$How Risky \is my diet?$

problem
How risky is my diet?

Age

11 to 16

Challenge level

Newspapers said that eating a bacon sandwich every day raises the risk of bowel cancer by 20%. Should you be concerned?