Conditional probability

There are 26 NRICH Mathematical resources connected to Conditional probability
Succession in Randomia
problem

Succession in Randomia

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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By tossing a coin one of three princes is chosen to be the next King of Randomia. Does each prince have an equal chance of taking the throne?
The Birthday Bet
problem

The Birthday Bet

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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The next ten people coming into a store will be asked their birthday. If the prize is £20, would you bet £1 that two of these ten people will have the same birthday ?
Two's company
problem

Two's company

Age
11 to 14
Challenge level
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Seven balls are shaken. You win if the two blue balls end up touching. What is the probability of winning?
Put Out
problem

Put Out

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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After transferring balls back and forth between two bags the probability of selecting a green ball from bag 2 is 3/5. How many green balls were in bag 2 at the outset?
In a box
problem

In a box

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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Chris and Jo put two red and four blue ribbons in a box. They each pick a ribbon from the box without looking. Jo wins if the two ribbons are the same colour. Is the game fair?
Master Minding
problem

Master Minding

Age
11 to 14
Challenge level
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Your partner chooses two beads and places them side by side behind a screen. What is the minimum number of guesses you would need to be sure of guessing the two beads and their positions?
Penta Colour
problem

Penta Colour

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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In how many different ways can I colour the five edges of a pentagon so that no two adjacent edges are the same colour?
Fixing the Odds
problem

Fixing the Odds

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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You have two bags, four red balls and four white balls. You must put all the balls in the bags although you are allowed to have one bag empty. How should you distribute the balls between the two bags so as to make the probability of choosing a red ball as small as possible and what will the probability be in that case?
Coin Tossing Games
problem

Coin Tossing Games

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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You and I play a game involving successive throws of a fair coin. Suppose I pick HH and you pick TH. The coin is thrown repeatedly until we see either two heads in a row (I win) or a tail followed by a head (you win). What is the probability that you win?
Snooker Frames
problem

Snooker Frames

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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It is believed that weaker snooker players have a better chance of winning matches over eleven frames (i.e. first to win 6 frames) than they do over fifteen frames. Is this true?