Theoretical probability

  • Handling Data - Short Problems
    problem

    Nine or Ten?

    Age
    11 to 14
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star filled star

    Is a score of 9 more likely than a score of 10 when you roll three dice?

  • Fabric bag open at the top, showing a number of blue marbles.
    problem

    Marbles and Bags

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star empty star

    Two bags contain different numbers of red and blue marbles. A marble is removed from one of the bags. The marble is blue. What is the probability that it was removed from bag A?

  • Thank your Lucky Stars
    problem

    Thank Your Lucky Stars

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star empty star

    A counter is placed in the bottom right hand corner of a grid. You toss a coin and move the star according to the following rules: ... What is the probability that you end up in the top left-hand corner of the grid?

  • Distribution Differences
    problem

    Distribution Differences

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star empty star

    How could you compare different situations where something random happens? What sort of things might be the same? What might be different?

  • Gambling at Monte Carlo
    problem

    Gambling at Monte Carlo

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star filled star

    A man went to Monte Carlo to try and make his fortune. Is his strategy a winning one?

  • Fixing the Odds
    problem

    Fixing the Odds

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star filled star

    You have two bags, four red balls and four white balls. You must put all the balls in the bags although you are allowed to have one bag empty. How should you distribute the balls between the two bags so as to make the probability of choosing a red ball as small as possible and what will the probability be in that case?

  • Bet you a Million
    problem

    Bet You a Million

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star filled star

    Heads or Tails - the prize doubles until you win it. How much would you pay to play?

  • Voting Paradox
    problem

    Voting Paradox

    Age
    14 to 18
    Challenge level
    filled star filled star empty star

    Some relationships are transitive, such as 'if A>B and B>C then it follows that A>C', but some are not. In a voting system, if A beats B and B beats C should we expect A to beat C?

  • Snooker
    problem

    Snooker

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
    filled star empty star empty star

    A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?

  • How Many Balls?
    problem

    How Many Balls?

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
    filled star empty star empty star

    A bag contains red and blue balls. You are told the probabilities of drawing certain combinations of balls. Find how many red and how many blue balls there are in the bag.