Theoretical probability

  • Win or Lose?
    problem

    Win or Lose?

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    2 out of 3

    A gambler bets half the money in his pocket on the toss of a coin, winning an equal amount for a head and losing his money if the result is a tail. After 2n plays he has won exactly n times. Has he more money than he started with?

  • Thank your Lucky Stars
    problem

    Thank Your Lucky Stars

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    2 out of 3

    A counter is placed in the bottom right hand corner of a grid. You toss a coin and move the star according to the following rules: ... What is the probability that you end up in the top left-hand corner of the grid?

  • Distribution Differences
    problem

    Distribution Differences

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    2 out of 3

    How could you compare different situations where something random happens? What sort of things might be the same? What might be different?

  • Small tomato seedlings in yellow pots.
    problem

    Gambling at Monte Carlo

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    3 out of 3

    A man went to Monte Carlo to try and make his fortune. Is his strategy a winning one?

  • Fixing the Odds
    problem

    Fixing the Odds

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    3 out of 3

    You have two bags, four red balls and four white balls. You must put all the balls in the bags although you are allowed to have one bag empty. How should you distribute the balls between the two bags so as to make the probability of choosing a red ball as small as possible and what will the probability be in that case?

  • Scratch Cards
    problem

    Scratch Cards

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    3 out of 3

    To win on a scratch card you have to uncover three numbers that add up to more than fifteen. What is the probability of winning a prize?

  • Bet you a Million
    problem

    Bet You a Million

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
    3 out of 3

    Heads or Tails - the prize doubles until you win it. How much would you pay to play?

  • Voting Paradox
    problem

    Voting Paradox

    Age
    14 to 18
    Challenge level
    2 out of 3

    Some relationships are transitive, such as 'if A>B and B>C then it follows that A>C', but some are not. In a voting system, if A beats B and B beats C should we expect A to beat C?

  • Snooker
    problem

    Snooker

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
    1 out of 3

    A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?

  • How Many Balls?
    problem

    How Many Balls?

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
    1 out of 3

    A bag contains red and blue balls. You are told the probabilities of drawing certain combinations of balls. Find how many red and how many blue balls there are in the bag.