Theoretical probability

There are 67 NRICH Mathematical resources connected to Theoretical probability
Win or Lose?
problem

Win or Lose?

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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A gambler bets half the money in his pocket on the toss of a coin, winning an equal amount for a head and losing his money if the result is a tail. After 2n plays he has won exactly n times. Has he more money than he started with?
Coin Tossing Games
problem

Coin Tossing Games

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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You and I play a game involving successive throws of a fair coin. Suppose I pick HH and you pick TH. The coin is thrown repeatedly until we see either two heads in a row (I win) or a tail followed by a head (you win). What is the probability that you win?
Marbles and Bags
problem

Marbles and Bags

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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Two bags contain different numbers of red and blue marbles. A marble is removed from one of the bags. The marble is blue. What is the probability that it was removed from bag A?
Gambling at Monte Carlo
problem

Gambling at Monte Carlo

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
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A man went to Monte Carlo to try and make his fortune. Is his strategy a winning one?
Teams
problem

Teams

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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Two brothers belong to a club with 10 members. Four are selected for a match. Find the probability that both brothers are selected.
Snooker Frames
problem

Snooker Frames

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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It is believed that weaker snooker players have a better chance of winning matches over eleven frames (i.e. first to win 6 frames) than they do over fifteen frames. Is this true?
Snooker
problem

Snooker

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?
Squash
problem

Squash

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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If the score is 8-8 do I have more chance of winning if the winner is the first to reach 9 points or the first to reach 10 points?
Knock-out
problem

Knock-out

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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Before a knockout tournament with 2^n players I pick two players. What is the probability that they have to play against each other at some point in the tournament?
Rain or Shine
problem

Rain or Shine

Age
16 to 18
Challenge level
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Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.