Conditional probability

  • At least one...
    problem
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    At Least One...

    Age
    11 to 14
    Challenge level
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    Imagine flipping a coin a number of times. Can you work out the probability you will get a head on at least one of the flips?

  • Two's company
    problem
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    Two's Company

    Age
    11 to 14
    Challenge level
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    Seven balls are shaken. You win if the two blue balls end up touching. What is the probability of winning?

  • Non-Transitive Dice
    problem
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    Non-Transitive Dice

    Age
    11 to 14
    Challenge level
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    Alison and Charlie are playing a game. Charlie wants to go first so Alison lets him. Was that such a good idea?

  • In a box
    problem
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    In a Box

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
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    Chris and Jo put two red and four blue ribbons in a box. They each pick a ribbon from the box without looking. Jo wins if the two ribbons are the same colour. Is the game fair?

  • The Birthday Bet
    problem
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    The Birthday Bet

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
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    The next ten people coming into a store will be asked their birthday. If the prize is £20, would you bet £1 that two of these ten people will have the same birthday ?
  • Same Number!
    problem
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    Same Number!

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
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    If everyone in your class picked a number from 1 to 225, do you think any two people would pick the same number?

  • Mathsland National Lottery
    problem
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    Mathsland National Lottery

    Age
    14 to 16
    Challenge level
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    Can you work out the probability of winning the Mathsland National Lottery?

  • Snooker Frames
    problem
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    Snooker Frames

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
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    It is believed that weaker snooker players have a better chance of winning matches over eleven frames (i.e. first to win 6 frames) than they do over fifteen frames. Is this true?

  • Rain or Shine
    problem
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    Rain or Shine

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
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    Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.

  • Put Out
    problem
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    Put Out

    Age
    16 to 18
    Challenge level
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    After transferring balls back and forth between two bags the probability of selecting a green ball from bag 2 is 3/5. How many green balls were in bag 2 at the outset?