The resources found on this page offer a new approach to teaching probability.
The articles outline the thinking behind the approach, and explain the research basis for choosing to teach probability in this way.
Then there are resources for teaching the curriculum - rich, hands-on classroom tasks that can be used to teach the necessary concepts at each stage of the secondary probability curriculum.
Finally, there are supplementary resources for exploring the mathematisation of probability. To read more about the research basis for this teaching approach, see 'Towards a new probability curriculum for secondary schools', a paper presented by Dr Jenny Gage, NRICH, at ICME 2012.
The articles outline the thinking behind the approach, and explain the research basis for choosing to teach probability in this way.
Then there are resources for teaching the curriculum - rich, hands-on classroom tasks that can be used to teach the necessary concepts at each stage of the secondary probability curriculum.
Finally, there are supplementary resources for exploring the mathematisation of probability. To read more about the research basis for this teaching approach, see 'Towards a new probability curriculum for secondary schools', a paper presented by Dr Jenny Gage, NRICH, at ICME 2012.
article
Why start with tree diagrams?
Why the tree diagram is fundamental to studying probability - and why it should be introduced right from the start.
article
Probability calculations from tree diagrams
Progression from natural frequencies to proportions to the multiplication rule, and hence to probability trees.
article
Learning probability through mathematical modelling
Moving from the particular to the general, then revisiting the particular in that light, and so generalising further.
article
Tree diagrams, 2-way tables and Venn diagrams
Representing frequencies and probabilities diagrammatically, and using the diagrams as interpretive tools.
article
Independence and dependence
When are events independent of each other? Sampling with and without replacement.
article
Conditional probability is important for all students!
Understanding statistics about testing for cancer or the chance that two babies in a family could die of SIDS is a crucial skill for ALL students.
problem
The dog ate my homework!
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
A practical experiment which uses tree diagrams to help students understand the nature of questions in conditional probability.
problem
Which team will win?
Age
11 to 14
Challenge level
A practical experiment which will introduce students to tree diagrams, and help them to understand that outcomes may not be equally likely.
problem
Prize giving
Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
What's the fairest way to choose 2 from 8 potential prize winners? How likely are you to be chosen?
problem
Who is cheating?
Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
A practical experiment provides data. Moving onto expected results provides a context to establish the multiplication rule in probability, and an intuitive approach to conditional probability.
problem
The wisdom of the crowd
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
Who's closest to the correct number of sweets in a jar - an individual guess or the average of many individuals' guesses? Which average?
problem
Capture and recapture
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
How do scientists or mathematicians estimate the size of a population of wild animals?
problem
How confident are you?
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
What proportion of people make 90% confident guesses which actually contain the correct answer?
problem
Louis' ice cream business
Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
Should Louis go for the safer options, hoping to limit his losses, or would he be better off with a riskier strategy, focusing on maximising his profit?
problem
To insure or not to insure
Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
Should you insure your mobile phone? It rather depends on whether you focus on the long-term pay-off or the effect of a single event.