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problem
Win or lose?
14 to 16
A gambler bets half the money in his pocket on the toss of a coin,
winning an equal amount for a head and losing his money if the
result is a tail. After 2n plays he has won exactly n times. Has he
more money than he started with?
problem
Favourite
Rain or shine
16 to 18
Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.
article
An introduction to tree diagrams
This article explains how tree diagrams are constructed and helps you to understand how they can be used to calculate probabilities.
problem
Two and one
5 to 7
Terry and Ali are playing a game with three balls. Is it fair that
Terry wins when the middle ball is red?
problem
Distribution differences
14 to 16
How could you compare different situations where something random happens? What sort of things might be the same? What might be different?
problem
Drug testing
16 to 18
How do different drug-testing regimes affect the risks and payoffs for an athlete who chooses to take drugs?
problem
Who is cheating?
14 to 16
A practical experiment provides data. Moving onto expected results provides a context to establish the multiplication rule in probability, and an intuitive approach to conditional probability.