An understanding of probability is important in medicine, law and wider society. These problems invite students to consider some scenarios where interpreting probabilities incorrectly can have serious consequences.
problem
Spots and measles
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
99% of people who have measles have spots. Ben has spots. Do you think he has measles?
problem
Do rare events happen?
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
I'd be very surprised if I had three children all with the same birthday, but I read in the paper that it happened to one family...
problem
The ELISA test
Age
14 to 18
Challenge level
In 1% of cases, an HIV test gives a positive result for someone who is HIV negative. How likely is it that someone who tests positive has HIV?
problem
Matching criminals
Age
14 to 18
Challenge level
DNA profiling is an invaluable tool for the police. However, when it comes to probability, things aren't always as straightforward as they seem.
list
Great expectations: probability through problems
Articles and resources to support an intuitive approach to teaching probability.