List

Exploring the Mathematisation of Probability

The Wisdom of the Crowd
problem

The Wisdom of the Crowd

Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
filled star empty star empty star
Who's closest to the correct number of sweets in a jar - an individual guess or the average of many individuals' guesses? Which average?
Capture and recapture
problem

Capture and recapture

Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
filled star empty star empty star
How do scientists or mathematicians estimate the size of a population of wild animals?
How Confident Are You?
problem

How Confident Are You?

Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
filled star empty star empty star
What proportion of people make 90% confident guesses which actually contain the correct answer?
Louis' Ice Cream Business
problem

Louis' Ice Cream Business

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
filled star empty star empty star
Should Louis go for the safer options, hoping to limit his losses, or would he be better off with a riskier strategy, focusing on maximising his profit?
To insure or not to insure
problem

To insure or not to insure

Age
14 to 16
Challenge level
filled star empty star empty star
Should you insure your mobile phone? It rather depends on whether you focus on the long-term pay-off or the effect of a single event.