Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.
Before a knockout tournament with 2^n players I pick two players. What is the probability that they have to play against each other at some point in the tournament?
If the score is 8-8 do I have more chance of winning if the winner is the first to reach 9 points or the first to reach 10 points?
This requires an understanding of the simple rules of probability and a lot of calculating with fractions.