# Probability - It's Deadly Serious!

### Probability - it's deadly serious!

An understanding of probability is important in medicine, law and wider society. These problems invite students to consider some scenarios where interpreting probabilities incorrectly can have serious consequences.

### Introductory Video

##### Age 11 to 16
An introductory video to the Probability and Evidence collection

### Spots and Measles

##### Age 11 to 16 Challenge Level:
99% of people who have measles have spots. Ben has spots. Do you think he has measles?

### Do Rare Events Happen?

##### Age 11 to 16 Challenge Level:
I'd be very surprised if I had three children all with the same birthday, but I read in the paper that it happened to one family...

### The ELISA Test

##### Age 14 to 18 Challenge Level:
In 1% of cases, an HIV test gives a positive result for someone who is HIV negative. How likely is it that someone who tests positive has HIV?

### Matching Criminals

##### Age 14 to 18 Challenge Level:
DNA profiling is an invaluable tool for the police. However, when it comes to probability, things aren't always as straightforward as they seem.