Probable words
If you asked your mum/dad/friend to take you to the park today,
what sort of response might you get?
Age
5 to 7
Challenge level
Problem
Imagine it is the first day of the school holidays.
You ask your mum or dad or friend or gran or ... whether you can go to play in the park today.
What sorts of things might they say in reply?
Can you pick out the words which tell you how likely is it that you will actually go to the park in each case?
Can you put these words in an order from 'never' at one end to 'yes' at the other?
We would love to see your line of words.
Getting Started
What might your mum/friend/dad say if they can't take you to the
park today?
What might your mum/friend/dad say if they are not sure whether they will be able to take you to the park?
What might your mum/friend/dad say if they think they will be able to take you to the park today?
What might your mum/friend/dad say if they are not sure whether they will be able to take you to the park?
What might your mum/friend/dad say if they think they will be able to take you to the park today?
Student Solutions
Amit from Visakha Valley School in South East India wrote;
In the first day of school holidays, when I asked my mom to take me park today evening, then she said, "Why today? What is there in the park? Anything special?"
Then I said, "Mom today in the park there is an exhibition. It is very exciting."
Then she said, "But I have a lot of work to do at home. So let us plan tomorrow."
Then I said, "Please Mom I will help you in the work to finish it."
Then she laughed and said, "OK, you go and play now. Let us go in the evening."
When I asked my Dad to take me park today evening, then he said,"No, no it is the right time to learn extra activities. I will buy you a bicycle you practise at home. Let us go on any other day."
Then I said "Dad, in the park there is skating ring. So many children will do skating there. I also will learn it. Please take me to the park today. It also will be an extra activity to me, Dad."
Then my Dad laughed and said, "OK , I will take to you park in the evening. Get ready."
When I asked my friend to go to park, he said "No, no it is very boring in the park. All are trees and plants. What is there to see? I will not come with you to the park."
Then I said "Oh, dear friend! I think you have never seen a park. Actually there are so many fun things in a park. The air in the park in the evening is so pleasant and good for health. We are very much tired with our school work. So it will be relaxation for us."
Then he said, "Then it is OK. Let us go in the evening."
Here are the words that various youngsters suggested;
Henry from St. Peter's College
No-Tomorrow-Maybe-After
lunch-Yes-Definitely-We'll go right now.
Alex from St. Peter's College
No-Over my dead body-When you've done your homework-Ask your grandpa-Unlikely-When your dad gets home-Maybe-Once I've finished my coffee-Definitely-Yes.
Clayton also from St. Peter's College
Never-No-Unlikely-Depends-Maybe-Possibly-Probably-Likely-Yes.Josh from The Hall
Never going to happen-Almost definitely can-Not likely-Possibly-Maybe-I'll think about it-You almost certainly can-You definitely can
Parnia from Servite R.C.School
Never-No-Probably Not-Let's see-Maybe-Probably-Yes-Anytime.Andrew from Melbourn Village College
Never-Probably not-I don't think so-I doubt it-Maybe-We'll see-Hopefully-Probably-Almost certainly-Yes.Six pupils from Burford wrote
Never-No way-Oh no-no-I don't know-We will see-Maybe-Perhaps-You might-Probably-Ok-Of course-You may-Oh yes-Yes you can-Sure-Definitely-Yes.Mila from Ricards Lodge HIgh School got the ideas sorted out along a line like this.
Image
This was an interesting idea, well done Mila for thinking of this. From Lasswade Schoold in Scotland we had the following list of words in the Scots Language.
nae chance - dinnae think sae-nae likely-dinnae ken-A 'hink sae - Aw" richt then- AyeWell done all of you.
Maybe teachers looking at these may see some value in having similar discussions in various areas of Mathematics to find out what pupils see as the associated words they know. For example when working on temperature, "hot, OK, muggy, nice . . . . . ."
Teachers' Resources
Why do this problem?
This activity is very suitable for young pupils when they are just beginning to grapple with the ideas associated with probability. Pupils should be allowed to offer all kinds of words that they feel that have to do with "likelihood". The activity may be used as part of language development, as a catalyst for encouraging pupils to talk
about their ideas using appropriate words.
Possible approach
The way you introduce this task will depend on the environment that you have in your classroom. It probably requires a situation where children are used to listening to each other and respect for other people's ideas is evident.
The context that you use as the basis for the activity will be best chosen to suit the learners. Ideally, you'll be able to make the most of a conversation that is already taking place rather than necessarily initiating the activity yourself completely from scratch. If an opportunity doesn't present itself, you could, for example, ask learners to imagine that it is the first day of the
school holiday. What might they like to do? Take some suggestions and then focus on one of these, let's say 'go to the park'. Invite children to imagine that they asked a friend/mum/dad/gran etc. whether they could go to the park that day. Can they imagine what kind of reply they might get? Collect some ideas on the board, for example:
"Perhaps later."
"It's unlikely I'll have time."
"Maybe. If you're good."
To aid this part of the activity, you could have some words already written on the board or on cards which children might be able to use in sentences of their own.
Once you have got a range of words, explain that you need the whole group's help in ordering the cards on a line, from 'never' (or something similar like 'no') to 'yes' (or something similar like 'definitely'). You may like to give small groups their own cards to order rather than doing this as a whole-class activity.
Key questions
Tell me what your dad/mum/friend may say.
What do you think that means?
Where shall we put that word in our line?
Possible extension
You may use this style of discussion in all sorts of other contexts, for example when considering words associated with hot and cold, light and heavy, etc.
Possible support
Some pupils may need extra encouragement to help them express their words.