This collection of resources was developed in collaboration with Professor Philip Dawid of the University of Cambridge
The problems in this collection are about thinking about which questions to ask, and how to interpret the answers.
For example, almost everyone who gets measles gets spots. If you go to your doctor with spots, they won't conclude that you're very likely to have measles, as there are many other diseases that can cause spots.
You need to be careful about the difference between the probability of getting spots if you have measles and the probability of having measles if you get spots. This mistake has caused numerous misunderstandings in medicine, law and wider society.
problem
Spots and measles
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
99% of people who have measles have spots. Ben has spots. Do you think he has measles?
article
Evidence and headlines
Headlines sometimes distort the truth. Read about how micromorts can be used to compare the risks of different activities.
problem
Probability in court
Age
14 to 18
Challenge level
When you're on trial for murder, it can be crucial that the court understands probability...
problem
Do rare events happen?
Age
11 to 16
Challenge level
I'd be very surprised if I had three children all with the same birthday, but I read in the paper that it happened to one family...
problem
Matching criminals
Age
14 to 18
Challenge level
DNA profiling is an invaluable tool for the police. However, when it comes to probability, things aren't always as straightforward as they seem.
problem
The ELISA test
Age
14 to 18
Challenge level
In 1% of cases, an HIV test gives a positive result for someone who is HIV negative. How likely is it that someone who tests positive has HIV?
These resources were originally developed by the Millennium Mathematics Project Motivate Programme in collaboration with Professor Philip Dawid, funded by a Wellcome Trust grant.