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This problem offers a great opportunity for talking about chance. Students can use their intuition to rank the options in order, and then model the situation and manipulate the resulting fractions. Finally, there is a chance to discuss whether the models used are appropriate and how this might affect their answer.
Present the problem, and explain that students are being asked to try their luck without having access to anything more sophisticated than paper and pencil. Allow some time for pairs or small groups to discuss the different options, making sure they understand what they mean. Each group should come up with which option they think gives them the best chance or the worst chance of winning, with some justification for why they believe it.
Which game do you think is easiest to win?
How can we compare two fractions with different denominators?
Allow some calculator use so the focus is on the probability calculations without the comparisons of fractions getting in the way.