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This problem offers an opportunity to explore and discuss two types of probability: experimental and theoretical. The simulation generates lots of experimental data quickly, freeing time to focus on predictions, analysis and justifications.
The interactivity starts with a simple context of just two discs with two equally likely outcomes, together with a visual way of representing successive trials. As students work on the problem, they can increase the number of discs and switch between representations, before moving on to other related probability tasks. For more information about Low Threshold High Ceiling tasks, you may be interested in this article.
Introduce the problem, and invite students to make hypotheses about the likelihood of winning with two discs. Encourage them to explain their thinking and try to justify their hypotheses.
Invite students to think for a minute on their own about what will happen with three discs. Ask them to justify their conjectures with a partner and then the whole class. Use the interactivity to demonstrate what happens. Students could then work in pairs, to explain the results.
You may like to stop the group part way through their work in order to talk about useful representations that they have devised. This could be an opportunity to introduce tree diagrams, sample space diagrams, or the systematic listing of outcomes.
Students could then use the different representations to work out the theoretical probability of winning for 4, 5, and $n$ discs.
All you need for this game is a pack of cards. While you play the game, think about strategies that will increase your chances of winning.
This is a game for two players. Does it matter where the target is put? Is there a good strategy for winning?
Can you beat Piggy in this simple dice game? Can you figure out Piggy's strategy, and is there a better one?