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Rain or Shine

Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.


If the score is 8-8 do I have more chance of winning if the winner is the first to reach 9 points or the first to reach 10 points?


A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?

Put Out

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Why do this problem?

A simple context lending itself to the use of a tree diagram.

Key Questions

What is unknown?

How can we record the information?

Can we form an equation from the information given?

Possible Support

Try How Many Balls? and Fixing The Odds