Resources tagged with: Theoretical probability

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Broad Topics > Probability > Theoretical probability

A Probability Conundrum

Age 14 to 18

What do we mean by probability? This simple problem may challenge your ideas...

Genetics

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

A problem about genetics and the transmission of disease.

Who's the Winner?

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

When two closely matched teams play each other, what is the most likely result?

Succession in Randomia

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

By tossing a coin one of three princes is chosen to be the next King of Randomia. Does each prince have an equal chance of taking the throne?

Like Father Like Son

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

What is the chance I will have a son who looks like me?

The Random World

Age 11 to 18

Think that a coin toss is 50-50 heads or tails? Read on to appreciate the ever-changing and random nature of the world in which we live.

Playing Squash

Age 16 to 18

Playing squash involves lots of mathematics. This article explores the mathematics of a squash match and how a knowledge of probability could influence the choices you make.

Same Number!

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

If everyone in your class picked a number from 1 to 225, do you think any two people would pick the same number?

Last One Standing

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Imagine a room full of people who keep flipping coins until they get a tail. Will anyone get six heads in a row?

The Derren Brown Coin Flipping Scam

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Calculate probabilities associated with the Derren Brown coin scam in which he flipped 10 heads in a row.

Which Spinners?

Age 14 to 18 Challenge Level:

Can you work out which spinners were used to generate the frequency charts?

Magic Bag

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

A weekly challenge concerning combinatorical probability.

Taking Chances Extended

Age 14 to 18

This article, for students and teachers, is mainly about probability, the mathematical way of looking at random chance.

Bet You a Million

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Heads or Tails - the prize doubles until you win it. How much would you pay to play?

The Birthday Bet

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

The next ten people coming into a store will be asked their birthday. If the prize is £20, would you bet £1 that two of these ten people will have the same birthday ?

The Better Bet

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Here are two games you have to pay to play. Which is the better bet?

Football World Cup Simulation

Age 7 to 16 Challenge Level:

A maths-based Football World Cup simulation for teachers and students to use.

Rain or Shine

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Predict future weather using the probability that tomorrow is wet given today is wet and the probability that tomorrow is wet given that today is dry.

Distribution Differences

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

How could you compare different situation where something random happens ? What sort of things might be the same ? What might be different ?

Knock-out

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Before a knockout tournament with 2^n players I pick two players. What is the probability that they have to play against each other at some point in the tournament?

Put Out

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

After transferring balls back and forth between two bags the probability of selecting a green ball from bag 2 is 3/5. How many green balls were in bag 2 at the outset?

Voting Paradox

Age 14 to 18 Challenge Level:

Some relationships are transitive, such as `if A>B and B>C then it follows that A>C', but some are not. In a voting system, if A beats B and B beats C should we expect A to beat C?

Chances Are

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Which of these games would you play to give yourself the best possible chance of winning a prize?

In a Box

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Chris and Jo put two red and four blue ribbons in a box. They each pick a ribbon from the box without looking. Jo wins if the two ribbons are the same colour. Is the game fair?

Scratch Cards

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

To win on a scratch card you have to uncover three numbers that add up to more than fifteen. What is the probability of winning a prize?

Fixing the Odds

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

You have two bags, four red balls and four white balls. You must put all the balls in the bags although you are allowed to have one bag empty. How should you distribute the balls between the two. . . .

Win or Lose?

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

A gambler bets half the money in his pocket on the toss of a coin, winning an equal amount for a head and losing his money if the result is a tail. After 2n plays he has won exactly n times. Has. . . .

Coin Tossing Games

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

You and I play a game involving successive throws of a fair coin. Suppose I pick HH and you pick TH. The coin is thrown repeatedly until we see either two heads in a row (I win) or a tail followed by. . . .

Marbles and Bags

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Two bags contain different numbers of red and blue marbles. A marble is removed from one of the bags. The marble is blue. What is the probability that it was removed from bag A?

Gambling at Monte Carlo

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

A man went to Monte Carlo to try and make his fortune. Is his strategy a winning one?

Teams

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Two brothers belong to a club with 10 members. Four are selected for a match. Find the probability that both brothers are selected.

Snooker Frames

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

It is believed that weaker snooker players have a better chance of winning matches over eleven frames (i.e. first to win 6 frames) than they do over fifteen frames. Is this true?

Snooker

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

A player has probability 0.4 of winning a single game. What is his probability of winning a 'best of 15 games' tournament?

Squash

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

If the score is 8-8 do I have more chance of winning if the winner is the first to reach 9 points or the first to reach 10 points?

Mathsland National Lottery

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

Can you work out the probability of winning the Mathsland National Lottery?

What Is a Random Variable, Really?

Age 16 to 18

This article offers an advanced perspective on random variables for the interested reader.

How Many Balls?

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

A bag contains red and blue balls. You are told the probabilities of drawing certain combinations of balls. Find how many red and how many blue balls there are in the bag.

Stats Statements

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Are these statistical statements sometimes, always or never true? Or it is impossible to say?

FA Cup

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

In four years 2001 to 2004 Arsenal have been drawn against Chelsea in the FA cup and have beaten Chelsea every time. What was the probability of this? Lots of fractions in the calculations!

Limiting Probabilities

Age 16 to 18 Challenge Level:

Given probabilities of taking paths in a graph from each node, use matrix multiplication to find the probability of going from one vertex to another in 2 stages, or 3, or 4 or even 100.

Thank Your Lucky Stars

Age 14 to 16 Challenge Level:

A counter is placed in the bottom right hand corner of a grid. You toss a coin and move the star according to the following rules: ... What is the probability that you end up in the top left-hand. . . .