Mathematics is used in medical research, engineering and finance
to model the real world because it is much safer and cheaper to
try out theoretical models than it is to experiment with living
subjects, to build and test expensive prototypes, or to invest
real money in untried schemes.
Using this probability environment you can be a researcher and
use mathematical modelling to investigate the spread of different
sorts of diseases. Others have contributed their findings but you
can join in this ongoing research and let us know what you find
out. You will be able to model some of the characteristics of
your chosen disease. (Click on Configuration Data).
Your experiment takes place in a community modelled by a square grid.
You will see individuals scattered in the community, each
occupying one square. The sick individuals are red, the individuals with
immunity are dark green and the other healthy individuals are a
lighter green. You can set the conditions, watch the epidemic run
its course several times, and record the data produced by the computer.
You can then observe the effects of changing the conditions of the model.
You can model different diseases by choosing different probabilities of
catching the disease and of dying from it and also choosing the time between
contracting the disease and becoming infectious to others. You can test the
effects of the sort of policy decisions that a Public Health Official makes
with regard to vaccination and whether the sick people should stay at home or
be put in isolation. At the end of the given number of days the sick
individual either becomes healthy or dies and is removed from the village.
Now decide on what you want to investigate, carry out repeated trials, and
send us a report of your findings. As there is so much scope for different
investigations we'll publish all the interesting reports received.
This model will work for diseases that are spread by contact (such as flu,
the common cold, measles, meningitis, etc. ) but not for sexually transmitted
diseases and not for vector borne diseases such as those spread by insects
like for example malaria.
To learn more see
http://motivate.maths.org/conferences/conf109/c109_projects.shtml