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This interactivity allows you to simulate an epidemic disease outbreak using the Lucky Dip model.
A number of capsules are used to model the population. Each starts with a red token inside, indicating that it is vulnerable to infection. In each generation, the capsules are jumbled up, and a number of them are opened, and tokens removed from them if they contain any. If a token is removed, this represents someone new becoming infected with the disease, and becoming capable of transmitting the disease to someone else. The R value is written on the token.
Each time a token is removed from a capsule, the R value is used to calculate the number of people who will be exposed, and therefore the number of capsules that will be opened in the next round.
You can watch the jumbler working, or click "Next" to skip the animation. At the end, you will see a chart showing the number of infections in each generation.
Using the Settings menu (the purple cog) you can change the population size, the R number, and the amount of statistics shown. After changing the setting click one of the two buttons at the bottom of the settings page (either "In the current window" or "In a resizeable pop up window") to return to the interactivity with the updated settings.
What do you notice? What do you wonder?