Probability is a difficult concept and questions such as
this, which invites discussion, can help children to get to
grips with the difference between a calculated result (theoretical
probability) and what actually happens (experimental probability).
Playing the game with a bag full of coloured balls can help to make
the link.
Key questions
The first ball taken out is a red one, how many balls of each
colour are left?
What is the chance of picking another red ball?
What is the chance of of picking a yellow ball?
If you had won some money and could lose it by playing again,
would you stop playing? Why?
Possible extension
Make up a similar question with different numbers of coloured
balls. Are there any combinations of colours that would make it
clear what to do? Why?
Possible support
Playing the game with a bag full of coloured balls and
discussing the possible outcomes can help to make the link. Talk is
really important in understanding probability.