Exploring the Mathematisation of Probability

The Wisdom of the Crowd

Stage: 3 and 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:1

Who's closest to the correct number of sweets in a jar - an individual guess or the average of many individuals' guesses? Which average?

Capture and Recapture

Stage: 3 and 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:1

How do scientists or mathematicians estimate the size of a population of wild animals?

How Confident Are You?

Stage: 3 and 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:1

What proportion of people make 90% confident guesses which actually contain the correct answer?

Louis' Ice Cream Business

Stage: 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:1

Should Louis go for the safer options, hoping to limit his losses, or would he be better off with a riskier strategy, focusing on maximising his profit?

To Insure or Not to Insure

Stage: 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:1

Should you insure your mobile phone? It rather depends on whether you focus on the long-term pay-off or the effect of a single event.