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Probability - it's deadly serious!

An understanding of probability is important in medicine, law and wider society. These problems invite students to consider some scenarios where interpreting probabilities incorrectly can have serious consequences.
Introductory Video link

Introductory Video 

Stage: 3 and 4

An introductory video to the Probability and Evidence collection

Spots and Measles link

Spots and Measles live

Stage: 3 and 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:2 Challenge Level:2

99% of people who have measles have spots. Ben has spots. Do you think he has measles?

Do Rare Events Happen? link

Do Rare Events Happen? live

Stage: 3 and 4 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:2 Challenge Level:2

I'd be very surprised if I had three children all with the same birthday, but I read in the paper that it happened to one family...

The ELISA Test link

The ELISA Test live

Stage: 4 and 5 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:2 Challenge Level:2

In 1% of cases, an HIV test gives a positive result for someone who is HIV negative. How likely is it that someone who tests positive has HIV?

Matching Criminals link

Matching Criminals live

Stage: 4 and 5 Challenge Level: Challenge Level:3 Challenge Level:3 Challenge Level:3

DNA profiling is an invaluable tool for the police. However, when it comes to probability, things aren't always as straightforward as they seem.