Copyright © University of Cambridge. All rights reserved.
A game was played at a fair in which children guessed the weight of Mr. Jones, the rugby teacher.
Five children made the following guesses:
1. Between 70 kg and 90 kg
2. Between 75 kg and 100 kg
3. Between 88 kg and 140 kg
4. Between 90 kg and 95 kg
5. 85 kg exactly
It turns out that Mr Jones weighs 88 kg.
Each child argues that they should win the prize.
How might each child argue that their guess was best?
If you had to award the prize, who would you choose to be the winner, and how would you justify your choice?
Devise a scoring system that penalises those who guess very wide ranges, and rewards guesses where the middle of the range is very close to the actual weight.
Does your scoring system reward the child you thought should be the winner?