Epidemic Modelling

• Warm-up
• Try this next
• Think higher
• Read: mathematics
• Read: science
• Explore further

Mathematics is used in medical research, engineering and finance to model the real world because it is much safer and cheaper to try out theoretical models than it is to experiment with living subjects, to build and test expensive prototypes, or to invest real money in untried schemes.  

Find out about involvement of schools in on-going research into epidemic modelling.

Using this probability environment you can be a researcher and use mathematical modelling to investigate the spread of different sorts of diseases. Others have contributed their findings but you can join in this ongoing research and let us know what you find out. You will be able to model some of the characteristics of your chosen disease. (Click on Configuration Data).

Full Screen Version

Your experiment takes place in a community modelled by a square grid. You will see individuals scattered in the community, each occupying one square. The sick individuals are red, the individuals with immunity are dark green and the other healthy individuals are a lighter green. You can set the conditions, watch the epidemic run its course several times, and record the data produced by the computer. You can then observe the effects of changing the conditions of the model.

You can model different diseases by choosing different probabilities of catching the disease and of dying from it and also choosing the time between contracting the disease and becoming infectious to others. You can test the effects of the sort of policy decisions that a Public Health Official makes with regard to vaccination and whether the sick people should stay at home or be put in isolation. At the end of the given number of days the sick individual either becomes healthy or dies and is removed from the village.

Now decide on what you want to investigate, carry out repeated trials, and send us a report of your findings. As there is so much scope for different investigations we'll publish all the interesting reports received.

This model will work for diseases that are spread by contact (such as flu, the common cold, measles, meningitis, etc.) but not for sexually transmitted diseases and not for vector borne diseases such as those spread by insects like for example malaria.

---

To learn more see the Disease Dynamics Schools Pack